The African Development Bank-supported assessment of Uganda’s transport sector electrification finds that the transition to electric mobility presents significant socio-economic opportunities if managed as a “just transition.” The study assessed the replacement of 60% of Uganda’s boda boda fleet with electric motorcycles and the rapid introduction of electric kamunyes by 2035. The findings indicate that electrification can simultaneously support climate objectives, industrialization, job creation, and improved livelihoods, while reducing dependence on imported fossil fuels. However, targeted interventions will be required to address workforce transition challenges and ensure vulnerable groups, particularly women and informal workers, benefit from the transformation.

The most significant finding is the potential increase in incomes and employment. Electric boda boda riders are projected to earn an additional Shs193,340 per month, representing a 33% increase in profits due to lower fuel and maintenance costs. In addition, the expansion of electric kamunyes is expected to create about 10,841 jobs, while the growth of electric vehicle assembly and battery manufacturing could generate a further 3,099 jobs, particularly in the Busoga–Jinja industrial corridor. The transition also presents opportunities to increase women’s participation in transport and manufacturing, with over 4,000 jobs potentially accessible to women across the emerging e-mobility value chain.

Despite these opportunities, the study identifies key transition risks that require proactive policy action. Approximately 2,417 net jobs could be lost in traditional motorcycle maintenance and repair services by 2035, although up to 83% of affected workers could transition to electric vehicle maintenance with appropriate reskilling. The assessment further notes that transport electrification is unlikely to significantly strain the electricity system, accounting for only about 2.95% of total electricity demand by 2035. For Government, priority actions include restoring fiscal incentives for electric vehicles, supporting local manufacturing and skills development, expanding access to affordable financing, implementing reskilling programmes for affected workers, and developing a long-term fiscal strategy to manage declining fuel tax revenues while positioning Uganda as a regional hub for e-mobility and green industrialization.

For more insights, please visit:  https://www.afdb.org/en/documents/socio-economic-impact-assessment-electrification-ugandas-transport-sector