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Economic development

Uganda’s Growth and Socio-Economic Transformation era (2010–present) has been driven by a deliberate agenda to strengthen economic fundamentals, enhance competitiveness, and transition from a subsistence economy to a modern, prosperous nation. This agenda is anchored in the Comprehensive National Development Planning Framework (CNDPF) and the long-term aspirations of Uganda Vision 2040. The upcoming Fourth National Development Plan (2025–2030) marks a critical stage in this journey, designed to accelerate transformation through the Tenfold Growth Strategy, which seeks to double the size of the economy every five years.

From FY2025/26, government priorities will focus on accelerating growth and expanding the economy tenfold to US$500 billion in the medium term. Projections show GDP rising from Shs.224.2 trillion (US$57.5 billion; US$163.3 billion PPP) in FY2024/25 to Shs.250.9 trillion (US$63.6 billion; US$180.8 billion PPP) in FY2025/26, translating into a growth rate of 7%, compared to 6.3% the previous year. This trajectory is aligned with the Vision 2040 benchmark of 8.5% growth, positioning Uganda back on the critical path to achieving its long-term targets.

To achieve this, government will implement Phase I accelerator actions under the Tenfold Growth Strategy, supported by measures to sustain peace, security, and macroeconomic stability, while strengthening governance and public sector efficiency. The strategy emphasizes full monetization of the economy through the Parish Development Model (PDM), alongside investments in commercial agriculture, industrialization, tourism, minerals, oil & gas, science, technology, innovation (STI), ICT, and digital transformation. These pillars are designed to unlock productivity, expand market access, and ensure sustainable value addition across all sectors.

The long-term targets are ambitious yet achievable: increasing FDI inflows from US$2.9 billion in 2022 to US$50 billion, raising per capita GDP six-fold from US$1,081 in FY2022/23 to about US$7,000 by FY2039/40, doubling the national savings rate from 20% of GDP in 2022 to 40% by 2040, and expanding value-added exports by 50%. These outcomes will not only transform Uganda’s economic structure but also secure its place as a competitive and resilient economy within the global landscape.