World leaders gathered in Belém, Brazil this week for the annual United Nations climate summit to confront a sobering reality: Global emissions from fossil fuels are set to reach a new high in 2025, the goal of limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels is out of reach, and the United States did not even bother to show up. Against this backdrop, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its flagship World Energy Outlook, making headlines for including a scenario in which oil demand continues to climb through 2050.
The IEA’s flagship World Energy Outlook (WEO) is the most authoritative source of global energy analysis and projections. Updated annually to reflect the latest energy data, technology and market trends, and government policies, it explores a range of possible energy futures and their implications for energy security, access and emissions.
This year’s edition comes amid major shifts in global energy policies and markets, and acute geopolitical strains. Governments are reaching different conclusions about the best ways to tackle concerns about energy security, affordability and sustainability. As always, the World Energy Outlook provides unrivalled insights into the consequences of different energy policy and investment choices. An important theme in this year’s WEO is security of supply of critical minerals.
Electricity demand is accelerating globally, driven by digitalization (data centers, AI), cooling/heating, electric mobility, and more. However, while generation capacity (especially from renewables) is growing fast, grid infrastructure (transmission, distribution) is lagging. Around 730 million people remain without electricity; about 2 billion people rely on polluting cooking methods. The ACCESS scenario shows universal electricity access by 2035 and universal clean cooking by 2040.
Sub-Saharan Africa receives only about 2% of global clean energy investment, despite housing about 20% of the world’s population and the bulk of people without electricity access. Public / development finance for energy projects in Africa has dropped significantly, creating a challenge for scaling modern energy access. Specifically, the IEA estimates that US$15 billion annually will be required to reach universal electricity access in Africa. Around 600 million Africans lack access to electricity, representing a large share of global electricity deficits. Africa’s electricity demand is expected to surge, driven by urbanization, industrialization, electrification, and new high-consumption applications (like data centers). The IEA argues that to meet this demand, not only do generation capacities need to grow, but also grid infrastructure and storage. Otherwise, access may remain inequitable.
Using the context from WEO-2025 and IEA country-level analyses (e.g., Uganda Energy Transition Plan): Uganda still has significant gaps in energy access. As of June, 2024, Uganda’s Installed generation capacity was about 2,098.2 MW, a 54% increase over five years; and Renewable share of installed capacity was 95.2%, predominantly hydropower (82.1%), bagasse cogeneration (9%) and solar (4.2%). Maximum system demand (June 2025): 1,202.9 MW, a 25% rise from June 2024; Grid generation (FY2024/25) was 7,234 MWh, a 13% year-on-year increase; and Access to Electricity (national) was about 51.5% (2024), with urban access about 76.4% and rural access 42.4%.
Key insights include:
- The rapid rise in electricity demand (25% year-on-year) suggests expanding industrial activity and broader economic engagement, necessitating grid investments to sustain growth;
- With 95% installed capacity from renewables, Uganda is well-positioned to capitalise on low-cost hydro and solar in line with global trends towards renewables dominating new capacity additions.
- National electrification at about 51.5% signals both progress and significant gaps that constrain productivity, enterprise growth, education outcomes, and health services — core drivers of inclusive growth;
- The low share of continental clean energy investment (about 2%) in Africa underscores the challenge in mobilising finance for expansion and reliability improvements, a trend that Uganda must actively address through policy reforms and investor incentives;
- The global estimate of 730 million without electricity (mostly in sub-Saharan Africa) emphasises the urgency of expanding access for social and economic development; Uganda’s electrification constraints reflect this broader pattern
According to its national Energy Transition Plan, Uganda has strong potential in solar, hydropower, and even geothermal, which align well with the opportunities identified by the WEO. To leverage its resource potential and close access gaps, Uganda needs to mobilize substantial investments, including from both public and private sources. WEO-2025’s emphasis on investment in infrastructure (grid, storage) and access support is highly relevant.
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